Burning the Ships: The Decision Playbook
Burning the Ships: The Decision Playbook Part 2B of Playing with Fire.
CHANGE
Mark Gedeon
9/3/20252 min read


Run a premortem
Before you burn, pause. Imagine it’s six months from now and the initiative failed. Ask your team: Why did this fail?
This “premortem” exercise surfaces the weak points and blind spots before you commit. It doesn’t dampen boldness—it makes it smarter. You may still burn the ships, but you’ll know where the firebreaks need to be.
Set kill criteria up front
Here’s where many leaders stumble. They declare, “No turning back!” and then… never define what failure looks like. The result is escalation of commitment.
Instead, set kill criteria in advance: clear thresholds that tell you, “If adoption hasn’t hit X by Y date, we pivot.” Document them. Assign someone the authority to call it. Without these markers, burning the ships can trap you in a path that drains both money and people.
Pair vision with WOOP/MCII
Bold goals inspire, but they’re not enough. A tool called WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) or its cousin MCII (Mental Contrasting with Implementation Intentions) helps balance aspiration with realism:
Wish/Outcome: What do we want to achieve?
Obstacle: What could block us?
Plan: If the obstacle shows up, what’s our if/then response?
It’s a simple framework, but it keeps teams from being swept away by rhetoric. They see both the mountain and the potholes.
Balance profit with people
Every bold move is a tradeoff between efficiency and resilience. Profit is the point of business—but people are the engine.
Push too hard, and you get short-term results with long-term burnout.
Move too cautiously, and you miss opportunities.
The art of leadership is holding both: urgency and sustainability. Burning the ships is not just a financial calculation. It’s a human decision with real consequences for energy, morale, and long-term growth.
The bottom line for leaders
Burning the ships is a tool, not a strategy. The best leaders use it sparingly, and only when the evidence supports it.
Name the door (one-way or two-way).
Run the premortem.
Set kill criteria.
Pair vision with realistic plans.
Keep profit and people in balance.
Boldness without structure is theater. Structured boldness, by contrast, builds trust and resilience—even when the ships are gone.
Next up in Part 2C:
We’ll look at real-world case files—companies that burned the ships and won, and those that lit the match too soon.
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Burning the Ships: The decision playbook
When to Burn and When to Keep the Boats. Playing with Fire, Part 2B.
We’ve seen both sides of fire: alarms that create panic and ships set ablaze to demand commitment. Part 1 showed how false urgency backfires. Part 2A examined the psychology of burning the ships—how commitment devices, urgency, and sunk costs shape people’s reactions. But the real challenge for leaders isn’t knowing the metaphors. It’s knowing the moment. When is burning the ships bold strategy, and when is it a reckless gamble? This is where the decision playbook begins.
One-way vs. two-way doors
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos uses a simple but powerful filter: is this decision a Type 1 (one-way) door or a Type 2 (two-way) door?
Type 1 decisions are high-stakes and irreversible. Entering a new market, exiting a legacy business, or restructuring your workforce—once you step through, there’s no easy way back. These are the only moments when burning the ships might make sense.
Type 2 decisions are reversible. You can try, learn, and pivot. Here, burning the ships is unnecessary and dangerous. Experimentation is the wiser move.
The first step is simply naming which door you’re about to walk through.